PETER’S BUSINESS & FINANCE BRIEFING – Wednesday 25 June 2025, 06:00 Hong Kong
● Asian markets rise after Israel & Iran agree to ceasefire ● Oil tumbles 5% as traders respond to Trump’s ‘ceasefire’ ● Powell reaffirms cautious stance on rate cuts, infuriating Trump
Wednesday’s Opening Call
Hang Seng (Hong Kong) Projected Open: 24,392 +215 points +0.9%
Nikkei 225 (Japan) Projected Open: 38,800 +9 points +0.0%
Quick Summary - 4 Things To Know Before Asian Markets Open
Israel and Iran appeared to be honouring a truce unexpectedly announced by Donald Trump Tuesday, after the US president reacted angrily to early breaches by both sides. Soon after the truce began, Israel said Iran had launched missiles during the cease-fire, a claim Iran’s military denied. The president held a phone call with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, during which he was reportedly "exceptionally firm and direct" about maintaining the ceasefire. Israel and Iran confirmed Tuesday they had agreed to Donald Trump’s proposal for a ceasefire after more than a week of conflict.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before a House committee Tuesday and signalled interest rate cuts are off the table until at least September, as he pushed back against Donald Trump’s call for an immediate reduction. He told lawmakers that recent economic data would have likely justified continuing to lower interest rates if not for concerns that higher tariffs might derail the central bank’s yearslong fight to defeat inflation.
China’s top legislature will review a draft revision to China’s competition law this week, focusing on regulating cyberspace competition. The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress will deliberate the draft for a second time from Tuesday to Friday, Xinhua News reported. According to a spokesperson for the Legislative Affairs Commission of the National People's Congress Standing Committee, Huang Haihua, the revision introduces a fair competition review system and aims to curb aggressive rivalry among online platforms.
South Korea’s Composite Consumer Sentiment Index rose sharply to 108.7 in June from 101.8 in May, reaching its highest level since June 2021. The surge in optimism was driven by confidence in newly elected President Lee Jae-myung’s commitment to addressing the country’s economic challenges, as well as progress in trade talks with the US. The rebound follows Lee’s snap election victory on June 3 and the recent approval of a 13.8 trillion won supplementary budget in May. The Kospi jumped 3.0%, hitting the highest level since 2021. Tuesday’s rally took the Kospi’s year-to-date advance to over 29%, which is about 20 percentage points more than the MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s 2025 gain.
Israel & Iran Ceasefire Holds
Israel and Iran appeared to be honouring a truce unexpectedly announced by Donald Trump Tuesday, after the US president reacted angrily to early breaches by both sides. Soon after the truce began, Israel said Iran had launched missiles during the cease-fire, a claim Iran’s military denied. “We will respond with force,” the chief of staff for Israel’s military said. Trump said, "Israel and Iran wanted to stop the war, equally!" in a post on his Truth Social platform. The president held a phone call with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, during which he was reportedly "exceptionally firm and direct" about maintaining the ceasefire
Israel and Iran confirmed Tuesday they had agreed to Donald Trump’s proposal for a ceasefire after more than a week of conflict. The US president continued to tout the ceasefire he said he brokered between the two countries, saying both sides had sought a deal. “Israel & Iran came to me, almost simultaneously, and said, “PEACE!” I knew the time was NOW,” he said on social media. “THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!” Trump said in a post on Truth Social around 1:00 a.m. stateside.
Donald Trump told NBC News that he thought the ceasefire would last forever. “I think the ceasefire is unlimited. It’s going to go forever,” he said. He described the Israel-Iran ceasefire as “a wonderful day for the world, in my opinion.” “It’s a great day for America. It’s a great day for the Middle East. I’m very happy to have been able to get the job done,” he said. “A lot of people were dying, and it was only going to get worse. It would have brought the whole Middle East down.” Trump added that the war is completely over, and he does not believe Israel and Iran “will ever be shooting at each other again.”
US vice-president JD Vance said US strikes had “obliterated the Iranian nuclear programme.” Vance added that the US attack had left the Islamic republic “incapable of building a nuclear weapon”. He said the ceasefire announced by Trump could herald the “dawn of an economic age of prosperity” in the Middle East. “In one week without, thank God, so far, losing a single American casualty, we have taken what was a threatening nuclear programme that could have destabilised the entire world,” Vance told Fox News on Monday evening.
Trump Signals Sanctions Relief For China To Buy Iran’s Oil
President Donald Trump said China could purchase oil from Iran, in an apparent reversal of policy after his administration spent months imposing sanctions on Chinese refineries for buying Iranian crude. “China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran,” Trump wrote on Truth Social as he flew to The Hague for a Nato summit. “Hopefully, they will be purchasing plenty from the US, also. It was my Great Honor to make this happen!” Trump added earlier on Tuesday.
On Tuesday evening, the White House said Trump was not reversing policy but merely pointing to the results of his strikes on Iran. “The president was simply calling attention to the fact that, because of his decisive actions to obliterate Iran’s nuclear facilities and broker a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz will not be impacted, which would have been devastating for China,” said a senior White House official. The official said Trump continued to urge “China and all countries to import our state-of-the-art oil rather than import Iranian oil in violation of US sanctions”.
Powell Reaffirms Cautious Stance On Rate Cuts
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before a House committee Tuesday and signalled interest rate cuts are off the table until at least September, as he pushed back against Donald Trump’s call for an immediate reduction. He told lawmakers that recent economic data would have likely justified continuing to lower interest rates if not for concerns that higher tariffs might derail the central bank’s yearslong fight to defeat inflation. “If it turns out that inflation pressures do remain contained, we will get to a place where we cut rates sooner rather than later, but I wouldn’t want to point to a particular meeting,” Powell said at the House Financial Services Committee hearing. Officials broadly expect tariffs to lead price growth to pick up this summer, interrupting an uneven but broad-based inflation slowdown over the past two years. “We do expect inflation to move up in the summer and if we see it not happening, we will learn from that,” Powell said.
Powell also said officials would pay close attention to unemployment in considering whether to resume rate cuts. “If we were to see the labour market meaningfully weaken in a way that was concerning, that would matter for that decision,” he said. “I don’t think we need to be in any rush because the economy is still strong, the labour market is strong.”
Donald Trump continued with his pressure campaign against Powell and argued rates should be “at least two to three points lower.” Powell’s testimony follows an interval of unusually harsh public criticism from Trump, who on Friday pleaded on social media for the Fed board to “override this Total and Complete Moron!” Trump has urged Powell to cut rates now and said Powell could then raise them later if inflation resurfaces. In an overnight social-media post looking ahead to Tuesday’s hearing, Trump said, “I hope Congress really works this very dumb, hardheaded person, over.”
Fed’s Michelle Bowman Calls For Interest Rate Cut As Soon As July
Federal Reserve vice-chair for financial supervision Michelle Bowman has called for an interest rate cut as soon as July, saying Trump’s trade war would have a smaller effect on inflation than some economists fear. Her comments followed similarly dovish remarks last week from another Fed governor, Christopher Waller. Bowman’s and Waller’s remarks highlight a divide between central bank officials over how they should respond to the US president’s tariffs.
Bowman said recent data had “not shown clear signs of material impacts from tariffs and other policies” and that the inflationary effect of the trade war “may take longer, be more delayed, and have a smaller effect than initially expected”. “All considered, ongoing progress on trade and tariff negotiations has led to an economic environment that is now demonstrably less risky,” Bowman said. “As we think about the path forward, it is time to consider adjusting the policy rate.” She also pointed to “signs of fragility in the labour market” and said “we should put more weight on downside risks to our employment mandate going forward”.
In his testimony Tuesday, Powell declined to embrace or refute the view advanced by Waller and Bowman in recent days that officials could prejudge that inflation will be mild enough to resume cuts soon. “Many paths are possible here,” Powell said. “We’re going to be learning. We will get an inflation number for June. We’ll learn something. Then we’ll get it for July,” Powell said. “We’re perfectly open to the idea that the pass through” of tariffs into retail prices “will be less than we think. And if so, that’ll matter for our policy.”
The central bank’s latest projections, released last week, showed that seven officials think rates will need to remain on hold at 4.25-4.5% for the duration of this year to contain stronger price pressures. But 10 of 19 officials who contribute to the forecasts still think the Fed will be able to make two or more cuts this year. Those in favour of cutting have pointed to tepid inflation data, with price growth in services in particular weakening.
US Consumer Confidence In June Misses Expectations
The US Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell 5.4 points to 93 for June. That was also below a Dow Jones estimate of 99.5. “The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers’ assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration. Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May. Their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the sixth consecutive month but remained in positive territory, in line with the still-solid labour market,” Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of global indicators at The Conference Board, said in a statement. The Board added that the decline was seen across all age groups and political affiliations.
US House Prices Rise Least In 20 Months
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index for the US rose 3.4% from the previous year in April, slowing from the 4.1% increase in the earlier month and below analysts’ expectations of a 4% growth rate. It was the softest rise since August of 2023 as the index is catching up to higher base years, while the jump in long-dated Treasury yields lifted benchmark mortgage rates.
South Korea Consumer Confidence Hits 4-Year High
South Korea’s Composite Consumer Sentiment Index rose sharply to 108.7 in June from 101.8 in May, reaching its highest level since June 2021. The surge in optimism was driven by confidence in newly elected President Lee Jae-myung’s commitment to addressing the country’s economic challenges, as well as progress in trade talks with the US. The rebound follows Lee’s snap election victory on June 3 and the recent approval of a 13.8 trillion won supplementary budget in May. Trade negotiations between Seoul and Washington have been advancing, with both sides aiming to finalize a tariff agreement by July. All key components of the index improved, including views on living standards, household income, consumer spending, and the domestic economy. Meanwhile, inflation expectations remained stable, with one-, three-, and five-year projections all anchored at 2.4%.
Taiwan Industrial Output Near 5-Year High
Industrial production in Taiwan rose by 22.60% year-on-year in May, easing slightly from an upwardly revised 23.71% gain in the previous month. However, it still stands near its highest level since February 2020. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial output rose 3.42% in May, easing from an upwardly revised 9.94% gain in April.
Malaysia Inflation Rate Lowest In Over 4 Years
Malaysia’s annual inflation rate decelerated to 1.2% in May, down from 1.4% in March and April and below economists’ consensus forecast of 1.4%. It was the lowest reading since February 2021, with food prices rising the least in eight months (2.1% vs 2.3% in April). Core consumer prices, excluding volatile fresh food items and administered costs, rose 1.8% y/y, after a 2.0 % gain in April. Monthly, consumer prices edged up 0.1%, the same pace as in April.
Hassett: Trade Deals Coming After Tax Bill
The US may not announce any trade deals with foreign countries until Republicans’ massive tax and spending legislation passes Congress, a senior White House official said Tuesday. “We know that we’re very close to a few countries and are waiting to announce after we get the Big Beautiful Bill closed,” National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said on Fox Business, referring to Trump’s tax bill.
Hassett predicted a “sequence” of trade deals around July 4, the Republicans' aspirational deadline for passing the tax bill. But many lawmakers have suggested final passage will take longer. The administration has separately set a self-imposed deadline of July 9 to cut deals to avoid Trump's so-called "reciprocal" tariffs, but without inked deals, that deadline could also be pushed back.
IMF Approves US$1.3bn Support For Bangladesh
The International Monetary Fund has approved US$1.33 billion in support for Bangladesh following the completion of the combined third and fourth review under three lending facilities. This includes immediate access to US$884 million under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and Extended Fund Facility (EFF), and US$453 million from the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The move aims to help Bangladesh address rising external financing needs and ongoing macroeconomic challenges, including elevated inflation, sluggish growth, and a widening external financing gap. Bangladesh first sought IMF assistance in 2023, securing a US$4.7 billion bailout amid falling foreign reserves triggered by surging global commodity prices after Russia invaded Ukraine.
China’s NPC Standing Committee Targets Online Competition
China’s top legislature will review a draft revision to China’s competition law this week, focusing on regulating cyberspace competition. The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress will deliberate the draft for a second time from Tuesday to Friday, Xinhua News reported. According to a spokesperson for the Legislative Affairs Commission of the National People's Congress Standing Committee, Huang Haihua, the revision introduces a fair competition review system and aims to curb aggressive rivalry among online platforms. It outlines responsibilities for platform operators to address unfair practices and empowers regulators to act against misconduct. The draft defines unfair behaviour to include data rights violations, bad-faith transactions, and large firms abusing market dominance by delaying payments to smaller businesses.
UK Lobbies South Korea To Switch To Rolls-Royce For Fighter Jet
UK officials are lobbying for Rolls-Royce to replace US rival GE Aerospace as the main engine partner on South Korea’s fighter jet programme, as Britain seeks closer ties with the Asian nation’s booming arms sector to help rebuild its own defence industrial base, the Financial Times reported. South Korean defence group Hanwha Aerospace produces current-generation engines on the KF-21 fighter jet under licence from GE. But US export restrictions over national security concerns have frustrated Seoul’s ambitions to sell the jet to potential buyers such as the United Arab Emirates and Indonesia.
As an alternative, South Korea has been looking to develop its own engines, with Hanwha and local rival Doosan Enerbility pitching for a role in the next generation of the KF-21, which is due to enter production in the mid-2030s. But with some defence experts expressing scepticism about their capabilities within the timeframe, UK officials have been pressing the case for co-production with a foreign partner as an intermediary step, according to the FT. “Rolls-Royce’s involvement would de-risk the project and accelerate the timeline,” said a British official. “This is not about simply selling engines to South Korea. It is about developing a new engine together and seeing that relationship through to the end of the engine’s life.”
Asia-Pacific Markets Rise After Israel & Iran Ceasefire
Asia-Pacific markets rose Tuesday after Donald Trump announced that Iran and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire. “It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE ... for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 1.8%, the most since May 2. Investors switched back into growth stocks and away from sectors such as oil and defence that had rallied in recent days. Semiconductor names including TSMC, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were among the top contributors to its gain.
South Korean shares were the top performers in the region. The Kospi jumped 3.0%, hitting the highest level since 2021. Among the index heavyweights, SK Hynix surged 7.3%, while Samsung Electronics added 4.3%. LG Energy Solution rose 2.2%. Tuesday’s rally took the Kospi’s year-to-date advance to over 29%, which is about 20 percentage points more than the MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s 2025 gain.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.1% to 38,791. Technology stocks led the charge, with strong gains from Lasertec (+13.3%), Disco (+4.8%), Tokyo Electron (+3.7%), and SoftBank Group (+5.6%). On the trade front, Japanese negotiator Ryosei Akazawa is reportedly planning his seventh trip to the US as early as June 26 to push for the removal of tariffs. Talks will reportedly focus on US duties affecting Japanese autos, the country’s key export sector.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 closed 1.0% higher. Shares of Virgin Australia jumped almost 10% in the first minutes of trading, following its IPO. Bain Capital sold 30% of Virgin Australia for A$2.90 a share as the airline completed a A$685 million (US$440mn) initial public offering on Tuesday. The shares closed up 11.4%. The first shares changed hands just hours after Iran’s retaliatory missile attack on a US air base in Qatar, and an announcement by President Donald Trump that Israel and Iran had agreed to a tentative ceasefire. Qatar Airways owns about 25% of the airline, and Virgin Australia operates long-haul flights to Doha from Australian cities using aircraft leased from Qatar Airways.
In India, the BSE Sensex rose 0.2%, to 82,055, reaching its highest level since early October intraday. Adani Ports jumped 2.6% after Mumbai International Airport, a subsidiary of Adani Airport Holdings, secured a US$750 million investment from a group led by affiliates of Apollo-managed funds and other long-term backers.
Hong Kong Stocks Rise For Third Day
Stocks in Hong Kong rose for a third day, jumping by the most in six weeks amid a slide in global oil prices. The Hang Seng ended the day 488 points higher, or 2.1%, at 24,177 boosted by the strongest Stock Connect inflows in three weeks. The Hang Seng Tech Index surged 2.1%. On the mainland, the CSI 300 climbed 1.2% to 3,904.
Among the top gainers, EV makers Li Auto jumped 3.8%, while Xiaomi added 3.7%. Aluminium maker China Hongqiao surged 6.4% after projecting first-half earnings to rise 35% from a year ago. On the downside, CNOOC dropped 1.1% and PetroChina shed 0.3% on lower oil prices, surrendering some of Monday’s gains.
European Markets Higher
European stocks ended the day on a high as the Israel-Iran ceasefire appeared to be holding. The Stoxx Europe 600 index provisionally rose 1.1% for the day. Regionally, Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 rose 1.6% and 1.0% respectively. The UK’s FTSE 100 closed flat.
The Stoxx Europe Travel and Leisure index jumped 4.3% after Donald Trump announced Iran and Israel had committed to a ceasefire. London-listed airlines and leisure stocks also topped the Stoxx 600. Carnival jumped 11.8%, TUI was up 10.6% and Lufthansa rose 6.5%.
German defence stocks sold off. Shares of Hensoldt closed down 3.4%, while Rheinmetall sank 3.1%, and Renk was 2.5% lower.
NATO’s annual summit began on Tuesday, with a defence spending hike the focus of the two-day gathering in The Hague, in the Netherlands. Allies have agreed in principle to sharply increase their defence spending to 5% of gross domestic product by 2035. However, some member states are already pushing back against the figure.
US Stocks Close To Record High As Oil Prices Crater
In the markets Tuesday, it was a bad day for haven assets as the dollar fell and gold retreated. Oil held losses but continued to fluctuate. Risk assets such as equities jumped. On Wall Street, US stocks surged as investors bet the Israel-Iran truce will hold. The Dow climbed 507 points, or 1.2%, and closed at 43,089. The S&P 500 gained 1.1% to end at 6,092. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.4%, settling at 19,913. The Nasdaq 100 added 1.5% for a record close of 22,191. The Cboe Volatility Index, known as Wall Street's "fear gauge," tumbled almost 12% as worries over a protracted Middle East conflict subsided.
The S&P 500 has bounced sharply from the April lows, putting it just 0.9% away from its record high of 6,144 points, set in February. Stock prices slipped briefly after the outbreak of fighting, but the ceasefire has now provided a clearing event, removing an obstacle to further gains. Investors who have reacted too quickly to geopolitical happenings have been caught out. “It’s dangerous for investors to overreact on such events which typically turn out to be entry points rather than lasting selloffs,” Barclays strategist Emmanuel Cau said.
The next key event is the July 9 tariff deadline. A best-case scenario would be if tariffs are delayed further, interspersed with a trade deal or two, said Peter Tchir, macro strategist at Academy Securities. “Then we can look to some of the other potential positive outcomes for upside optionality,” he said. With second quarter earnings on the horizon, the focus will be on commentary about how companies are navigating the trade backdrop.
Energy stocks fell as crude prices slumped in the wake of the ceasefire. Occidental Petroleum was down 3.3%, Exxon Mobil fell 3.0% and Chevron dropped 2.3%.
Airline shares rallied, helped by the drop in oil prices and hopes for an end to regional airspace disruptions. American Airlines (+4.3%), United Airlines (+2.7%), Delta Air Lines (+2.7%) and JetBlue (+4.2%) all gained.
Tesla fell 2.4%, partially reversing gains from Monday, after the automaker rolled out its long-promised driverless taxi service to a handful of riders. However, US auto safety regulators are looking into incidents where the vehicles appeared to violate traffic laws during the first day of paid rides in Austin.
Treasury Yields Slide
Treasury yields slid as investors also parsed fresh commentary from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell before the House Financial Services Committee. Powell signalled that the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates and will wait to see how Trump’s tariffs impact the economy. The 10-year yield fell 5 bps to a seven-week low of 4.30%. The yield on the 2-year note was down 4 bps at 3.82%.
Dollar Slides As Trump Announces Mideast Ceasefire
The US dollar index fell 0.4% to just below 98 on Tuesday, extending its decline towards a three-year low after Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, dubbing the conflict “The 12-Day War.” Asian currencies strengthened against the dollar, with the Malaysian ringgit and Philippine peso rising 1%. The yen gained 0.8% to ¥144.9 a dollar. The offshore yuan held its recent gains and was stable around Rmb 7.1650 per dollar on Tuesday.
Gold Slides Amid Israel-Iran Ceasefire
Gold fell 1.5% to $3,324 per ounce on Tuesday as the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran reduced demand for safe-haven assets. “With multiple signals in the energy market flashing ‘crisis over,’ and the S&P 500 posting big gains in the face of an easing of tensions, safe haven flows are fleeing gold for more lucrative opportunities,” Robert Yawger of Mizuho Securities USA said. Yawger forecasts a subdued gold market in the coming sessions, although other risk factors lie ahead that may reinvigorate interest in gold. “I don’t see a scenario where gold thrives until Trump’s tariff deadline runs out in two weeks and suddenly becomes front and centre again,” he says.
Oil Tumbles As Traders Respond To Trump’s ‘Ceasefire’
Oil prices were sharply lower for a second straight day as traders responded with relief to the apparent de-escalation in the conflict between Iran and Israel. President Trump said China can purchase Iranian oil, despite his administration's imposition of numerous sanctions designed to impede such trade. Brent crude fell 5% to $67.82 a barrel. Oil is below the level of $69.36 it was trading at before Israel launched its attack on Iran, having given up a risk premium of almost 15% at its peak last week.
Oil prices had already fallen sharply on Monday following Iran’s attack on a US base in Qatar, which markets judged to be a “de-escalatory” gesture that would stave off a more serious assault on energy infrastructure. Brent closed 8.8% lower on Monday at $70.24 a barrel, the biggest drop since August 2022. At one stage on Monday, Brent had surged above $80 as traders responded to US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities at the weekend.
Helima Croft, a former CIA analyst now at RBC Capital Markets, said, “the market is now clearly pricing in major de-escalation between the US and Iran.” Michael Alfaro, chief investment officer at Gallo Partners, a hedge fund focused on energy and industrials, said, “Iran’s decision to retaliate via a well telegraphed missile attack on US bases implies that they are less likely to weaponize oil.” Analysts said the decline also reflected traders judging that Iran would not attack important Middle Eastern energy infrastructure or attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz. “Oil markets have come to realise with a jolt that Iran has no interest in an uncontrolled conflagration. As in 2020, Tehran has calibrated a bare minimum response,” said Bill Farren-Price, at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
Analysts also said the crude market was supported by plentiful supply, particularly after the Opec+ group of oil producers lifted its output targets in recent months. “Another reason for the lack of war premium is the flood of oil that is hitting the market,” said Robert Yawger, commodity analyst at Japanese investment bank Mizuho Securities.
Cryptocurrencies Rally On Israel-Iran Ceasefire
Bitcoin rose 1.7% to $105,538 in early Asia hours on reports that Iran and Israel had agreed to a ceasefire timeline. Ether jumped over 3% to $2,426. On Sunday, Bitcoin dropped below the $99,000 mark, its lowest level in more than a month, after the US launched attacks on Iranian nuclear sites. Ether had also plunged over 10% at one point. By the end of the New York session, bitcoin was at $106,000
Peter Lewis’ Money Talk Podcast
On Wednesday’s “Peter Lewis’ Money Talk” podcast, I’ll be joined by Richard Harris, Chief Executive Officer at Port Shelter Investment Management, and Tony Nash, the Founder of Complete Intelligence. With a view from Japan is John Beirne, Principal Economist at the Asian Development Bank.
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